Who’s the Pack playing?
Opponent: Florida State
Mascot: This Thing, apparently | School Location: Sabre Headquarters, FL | Conference: ACC
2024 Record: 34-9 (13-8, 2nd Atlantic) | 2024 RPI Rank: 5
2023 Record: 23-31 (9-21, 7th Atlantic) | 2023 RPI Rank: 61
2022 Record: 34-25 (15-15, 4th Atlantic) | 2022 RPI Rank: 33
When? Where? How do I watch?
Location: Mike Martin Field at Dick Howser Stadium (Tallahassee, FL)
Game Time(s): Fri, May 3 @ 6:00pm | Sat, May 4 @ 7:00pm | Sun, May 5 @ 1:00pm
TV: Friday (ACCNX), Saturday (ACC Network), Sunday (ACCNX)
Live Stats: Stat Broadcast
Tell me about this team
Florida State doesn’t really have patience for mediocrity. That definition of mediocrity for the Seminoles is anything falling short of a Super Regional. It’s a program that has been blessed with coaching talent for... well... ever. The operating space for a coach is so razor thin that the brass fired the son of legendary long-time coach Mike Martin Sr after just two full seasons that included two Regional appearances.
So you can understand the pressure that Link Jarrett had upon him as he entered this season. The former FSU player under Martin Sr had a disastrous first season in Tallahassee, resulting in the snapping of a 44-year streak of Regional appearances. Yeah, he was going to need to do something big this year in order to reach Year 3.
To date, he’s delivered. The Seminoles are currently in line for a Top 8 National Seed when selections are made for NCAA Regionals, meaning FSU would be in line to host a Super Regional should they make their way through the Tallahassee Regional that is to be.
This team can do it all. They hit (.320/.410/.569, 11.1 BB%, 17.4 K%), they run (46-of-52 SB) or at least can when they want to, they field (.980 FLD%), they pitch (4.49 ERA, .232 opp BA, 376.2 IP, 490 K). The two staples of a Jarrett-coached team are hitting and fielding, and true to form, there have been some key pieces (see below) who have taken huge steps in Year 2 under Jarrett to take themselves individually and the lineup as a whole to a higher level. The Noles lead the ACC in slugging percentage. The fielding has also been much improved this year, with a group that ranks second in the ACC in fielding percentage.
While the hitting has made huge strides (.280/.353/.440, 8.9 BB%, 21.5 K%, 27-38 SB last year), it’s really the pitching that’s been the biggest difference maker in the year over year improvement. FSU has had to deal with the loss of two impact arms mid-year in starting RHPs SO Cam Leiter (5-1, 4.63 ERA, 35.0 IP, 13.8 BB%, 35.2 K%) and JR Connor Whittaker (4-0, 5.31 ERA, 39.0 IP, 5.1 BB%, 22.2 K%), but even so the team has carved over a run off their ERA (5.75 in 2023 to 4.56 in 2024) while improving control (5.0 BB/9 to 4.7) and missing more bats (9.8 K/9 to 11.7).
There aren’t a lot of flaws for this team aside from the lack of a Sunday starter right now, but Whittaker looks close to returning and Leiter is also expected back before the end of the season. Add those two impact arms into this mix of a juggernaut and this looks like a team destined for Omaha with potentially the school’s first national title a reasonable expectation.
(Probable) Pitching Matchups
Friday: RHP Sam Highfill (SR) — LHP Jamie Arnold (SO)
Saturday: LHP Dominic Fritton (SO) — LHP Carson Dorsey (JR)
Sunday: LHP Cooper Consiglio (FR) — TBD
Key Players:
Offense
RF James Tibbs (JR) - .393/.493/.828, 14.9 BB%, 7.5 K%, 6-7 SB. The lefty hitter is a projected first round pick, especially with the strides he’s made under Link Jarrett’s guidance the last two years. He’s always had serious power, but he’s gone from a 31.7 K% as a freshman to 20.1% last year to a miniscule 7.5% this year. He’s basically answered every doubt about his hitting abilities this year.
3B Cam Smith (SO) - .399/.478/.640, 10.2 BB%, 17.6 K%, 3-3 SB. Like Tibbs is a projected first round pick - or at least no worse than a second rounder - in this year’s draft. He underwhelmed a bit as a freshman last year, although the expectations and pressure put on him were way too much. He’s living up to it this year. The 6’3, 224 pounder looks like a future MLB guy.
LF Jaime Ferrer (JR) - .314/.418/.654, 8.7 BB%, 17.4 K%, 3-4 SB. The Puerto Rico native has been a menace since he stepped foot on campus three years ago, even if he doesn’t get the hype of his aforementioned lineup mates. He’s boosting that draft stock this year, trading in doubles for homers while increasing his walk rate and maintaining his strikeout rate.
C/DH Marcos Dinges (SO) - .324/.416/.647, 14.9 BB%, 10.9 K%, 2-3 SB. The draft-eligible JUCO transfer from Tallahassee CC has really tapped into his power with the Seminoles. It’s quite an accomplishment to move from JUCO ball to the ACC and actually cut your K% while maintaining a similar level of power.
1B Daniel Cantu (rSR) - .320/.421/.527, 11.7 BB%, 21.1 K%, 2-2 SB. Grad transfer from USF where he was the 2021 AAC Tournament MVP. The 6’3, 220 lbs lefty has made the transition to the ACC incredibly well, although Duke cooled his bat considerably last weekend (1-for-9, 4 K).
Pitching
LHP Jamie Arnold (SO) - 8-1, 1.79 ERA, 65.1 IP, 6.0 BB%, 36.9 K%. The Tampa native started 8 games last year, but struggled with control and never really nailing down a role. He improved in the Cape Cod League last summer where he was an all-star and has hit another level this year. An almost sidearm delivery gives deception to his low-90’s fastball and helps hide his slider and changeup.
LHP Carson Dorsey (JR) - 3-2, 3 SV, 3.95 ERA, 41.0 IP, 11.0 BB%, 34.4 K%. Was an absolute strikeout machine at the JUCO level (201 K over 125.1 IP) and has maintained that at FSU. With the injuries to Leiter and Whittaker, he’s moved into the starting rotation and it’s gone about as well as Jarrett and crew could have hoped. Versus Wake Forest and Duke in his last two starts, he’s gone 12.0 IP, 11 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 19 K. Has a low-90’s fastball as part of a four-pitch mix from a kinda funky overtop delivery.
LHP Brennan Oxford (rSR) - 2-0, 3 SV, 2.81 ERA, 32.0 IP, 7.8 BB%, 29.8 K%. The former Wake Forest transfer from New Hampshire jumped from the Deacons to the Seminoles in hopes of seeing better postseason success, only to watch Wake make the CWS last year. He may get that chance this year. Like Arnold, he’s more of a sidearm slot guy with a low-90’s fastball that eats up lefties.
LHP Andrew Armstrong (SR) - 5-0, 5.34 ERA, 28.2 IP, 7.0 BB%, 19.4 K%. Another sidearmer, the lanky lefty doesn’t have the velo of Arnold or Oxford, but he’s been plenty effective. Had a rough go of it last weekend in two appearances vs Duke (0.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K). Has the ability to work multiple innings.
LHP Connor Hults (rJR) - 1-1, 3 SV, 2.76 ERA, 16.1 IP, 11.3 BB%, 37.1 K%. JUCO transfer who played his first two college years at Jacksonville in the ASUN conference. Pitched sparingly over the first month of the season, but like Dorsey, has stepped up into a more prominent role - and excelled at it - with injuries to the Noles’ pitching staff. The fastball isn’t going to blow you away (high-80’s), but the curveball is brutal.
Quick! Fun Facts!
The Seminoles have one player on their roster from the State of North Carolina (FR OF Justin Best from Cornelius, NC), although they have two others who transferred to FSU from NC-based schools (rSR LHP Brennen Oxford, Wake Forest; rJR RHP Joe Charles, North Carolina).
NC State trails Florida State in the all-time series, 39-76. The Wolfpack swept the Seminoles in Raleigh last year.
If you weren’t aware, but are sure to hear throughout this weekend, Link Jarret’s son - former Wolfpack second baseman J.T. - is a coach for the Wolfpack. He’s in his first year in Raleigh after spending last season on the coaching staff at Mississippi State.
Florida State is 4-4 in games that have been decided by one run or gone into extra innings. They are 24-2 at home this year.
The Key To A Series Win For State
NC State does not have a deep bullpen, so getting some length from the starters to minimize the innings required of the relief corps will be critical to taking this series. Much like the Clemson and UNC series, that could come via a combination of the first two pitchers in the game (a la Friday night efforts by the combo of Sam Highfill and Shane Van Dam) or via the starter working into/through the 6th inning (Mr. Dominic Fritton, if you will).
Prediction
It’s another tough matchup for the Wolfpack as the brutal ACC schedule continues. You could look at FSU 4-4 record over their last eight games and see that as a positive for the Wolfpack. You could also look at the slew of lefty arms and the power bats and see that as a major sign of concern for NC State. With the Pack’s lineup banged up, the latter is ringing a bit louder for me.
Outcome: The Seminoles take two of three.
